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Strategic Reflection Circle “Abidjan”
A transparent, reproducible composite index measuring West African states’ exposure to destabilisation risks. Ranking, method, weights and limitations.
The Strategic Vulnerability Index (SVI) measures, on a 0 to 100 scale, a West African state’s exposure to destabilisation risks. The higher the score, the greater the vulnerability. It does not predict a crisis: it signals a structural fragility that makes a shock more likely and more costly.
It relies solely on public World Bank data, using a published and reproducible method: anyone can check the calculations, challenge the weighting choices and measure their effect on the ranking.
Rank 1 = most vulnerable country. The “Robustness” column shows the extreme ranks obtained with the three alternative weightings described below.
| Rank | Country | IVS | Class | Institutional fragility | Political instability and violence | Armed violence | Neighbourhood exposure | Economic fragility | Robustness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 81.0 (2024) | Critical | 71 | 90 | 79 | 100 | 78 | stable |
| 2 | Niger | 74.8 (2024) | Critical | 66 | 85 | 75 | 100 | 57 | 2–4 |
| 3 | Mali | 72.9 (2024) | Critical | 72 | 100 | 75 | 33 | 42 | 2–6 |
| 4 | Chad | 72.5 (2024) | Critical | 76 | 86 | 46 | 100 | 52 | 3–6 |
| 5 | Burkina Faso | 72.1 (2024) | Critical | 63 | 88 | 84 | 67 | 45 | 3–5 |
| 6 | Cameroon | 70.8 (2024) | Critical | 72 | 81 | 59 | 100 | 35 | 5–6 |
| 7 | Togo | 57.9 (2024) | High | 64 | 66 | 42 | 67 | 39 | 7–8 |
| 8 | Benin | 56.8 (2024) | High | 56 | 58 | 47 | 100 | 34 | 7–8 |
| 9 | Mauritania | 49.7 (2024) | Notable | 67 | 61 | 15 | 50 | 30 | 9–11 |
| 10 | Guinea | 48.5 (2024) | Notable | 71 | 71 | 0 | 17 | 41 | 9–12 |
| 11 | Guinea-Bissau | 46.7 (2024) | Notable | 76 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 10–14 |
| 12 | Sierra Leone | 46.2 (2024) | Notable | 67 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 11–14 |
| 13 | Liberia | 43.8 (2024) | Notable | 71 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 13–15 |
| 14 | Côte d’Ivoire | 43.7 (2024) | Notable | 58 | 67 | 0 | 40 | 27 | 11–14 |
| 15 | Ghana | 42.3 (2024) | Notable | 51 | 50 | 0 | 67 | 55 | 10–16 |
| 16 | The Gambia | 38.8 (2024) | Moderate | 58 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 15–17 |
| 17 | Senegal | 35.9 (2024) | Moderate | 49 | 55 | 0 | 20 | 31 | 16–17 |
| 18 | Cabo Verde | 23.3 (2024) | Moderate | 38 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 13 | stable |
Robustness: 11 countries out of 18 keep their rank within two places, whichever weighting is used.
| Component | Weight | Measure | Source | Normalisation (0 to 100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional fragility | 35 % | Government effectiveness, rule of law, control of corruption (average) | Worldwide Governance Indicators | (2.5 − estimate) ÷ 5 × 100 |
| Political instability and violence | 25 % | Political stability and absence of violence | Worldwide Governance Indicators | (2.5 − estimate) ÷ 5 × 100 |
| Armed violence | 20 % | Battle-related deaths | UCDP (via Banque mondiale) | log(1 + deaths) ÷ log(10,001) × 100, capped at 100; no recorded conflict = 0 |
| Neighbourhood exposure | 10 % | Share of land neighbours within the perimeter with at least 25 battle-related deaths | UCDP (via Banque mondiale) | affected neighbours ÷ neighbours × 100 |
| Economic fragility | 10 % | GDP per capita (60%) and inflation (40%) | World Development Indicators | GDP: log scale between $300 and $10,000; inflation: 0 to 30% |
Final score: weighted average of available components. If a component is missing, the remaining weights are rescaled; no score is computed if less than 60% of total weight is available. For violence, neighbourhood and economy, the latest known value is carried forward for up to two years.
Any weighting is a choice. To measure its effect, the index is recomputed with three alternative weight sets: equal weighting (20% each); security priority (institutions 20%, stability 30%, violence 30%, neighbourhood 15%, economy 5%); governance priority (institutions 45%, stability 25%, violence 15%, neighbourhood 5%, economy 10%). The ranking’s “Robustness” column shows the result.