Two organisations, one standard: informing decisions in an uncertain strategic environment.
Discover the InstituteOur organisations
Community
Certified programmes that train leaders to think through uncertainty, decide under constraint and anticipate disruption.
View the catalogueCertified programmes & sessions
Organisations
The Strategic Reflection Circle “Abidjan” offers the public a free and rigorous space for geopolitical debate.
Join the CircleFree University of Geopolitics
Get involved
Strategic notes, geopolitical analyses and panel reports: the intellectual output of the Institute and the Circle.
All publicationsHome › Publications › Risk calendar
Strategic Reflection Circle “Abidjan”
The electoral, institutional, security and financial deadlines that matter for West Africa, rated by stakes and paired with the signals to watch.
Why it matters
Cabo Verde has the lowest score of the 18 countries tracked by the Circle’s Strategic Vulnerability Index (23.3 in 2024). A contested election followed by a regular handover would confirm its benchmark status in a region marked by military transitions. A possible run-off is scheduled for 29 November 2026.
Signals to watch
Turnout; acceptance of results by all candidates; whether a run-off is held on 29 November 2026.
Why it matters
The presidency of the Confederation of Sahel States rotates on a one-year term. Captain Ibrahim Traoré succeeded General Assimi Goïta at the 2nd summit in Bamako on 22-23 December 2025. The next summit date has not been announced: this deadline is inferred from the length of the term.
Signals to watch
Announcement of summit venue and date; progress on the unified force and the confederal bank; relations with ECOWAS.
Why it matters
Date set by the Independent Electoral Commission. The last change of power (2016-2017) was only completed after ECOWAS intervened; the vote tests how far institutions have consolidated since. The Gambia is in the least vulnerable third of the Circle’s Index (38.8 in 2024).
Signals to watch
Adherence to the Commission’s electoral calendar; campaign climate; recognition of results.
Why it matters
Votes set by decree after the coup of 26 November 2025, which took place the day before results of the previous election were due. The electoral commission then said it could not complete the process after ballots were seized and servers destroyed.
Signals to watch
Whether the date holds; eligibility of leading political figures; how results are published; ECOWAS position on the transition.
Why it matters
On 19 March 2026 the National Assembly extended its term until 20 December 2026. Legislative and municipal elections, first expected in 2025, have been postponed several times; no polling date was found in the sources consulted as of 14 September 2026.
Signals to watch
Official calling of the elections; any further extension; opposition response to postponements.
Why it matters
The roadmap adopted in 2022 plans a stability phase from 1 January 2027 ahead of the single currency launch. The 69th summit (19 July 2026) reaffirmed the 2027 goal, with entry limited to states meeting the convergence criteria.
Signals to watch
List of states deemed compliant; position of WAEMU members on the CFA franc; any new postponement.
Why it matters
Africa’s most populous country and the highest score in the Circle’s Strategic Vulnerability Index (81.0 in 2024). The Electoral Commission’s (INEC) revised timetable sets presidential and National Assembly elections for 16 January 2027.
Signals to watch
Primary and candidacy disputes; security of electoral operations in the North-East and North-West; electronic transmission of results; contestation rhetoric.
Why it matters
Second part of the electoral cycle set by INEC. Governors control a large share of public resources and local security arrangements; January results will shape the climate of this vote.
Signals to watch
Disputes over January results; localised violence; realignment of party alliances at state level.
No deadline matches these filters.
Stakes levels are the Circle’s assessment, based on the cited sources. They are not a forecast.
Initial entries compiled from public sources, verified on 14 September 2026. Facts are linked to their source; stakes levels are an indicative assessment, to be validated by the Circle.