The International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa establishes a fact worth stating plainly: in about half the region’s states, the interest bill alone exceeds the combined budgets for health and education. More than a third of sub-Saharan African countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, six of them in West Africa.
WAEMU: strong growth, debt that does not fall
The zone’s headline indicators are solid: the BCEAO projects 6.1% growth in 2026 after 6.5% in 2025, with inflation around 1%. Yet member states’ public debt stock reached 97,625.9 billion CFA francs at end-June 2026, up 5.3% year on year, for a ratio projected at 63.6% of GDP in 2026. The expected fiscal deficit is 3.5% of GDP.
Côte d’Ivoire is a partial exception: public debt fell back to 57.1% of GDP, the first decline in more than a decade, and the country raised $1.3 billion over fifteen years in February 2026 at its lowest financing cost in five years, while securing an IMF disbursement of $832.8 million.
Why this is a security issue
The link between debt and instability is not mechanical, and shortcuts should be avoided. It works through three observable channels. First, crowding out: every budget point spent on debt service is not spent on a school, a clinic or a rural road — that is, on the functions through which the state is visible in peripheral areas. Second, rigidity: a heavily indebted state loses fiscal room to react precisely when a security or climate shock demands unplanned spending. Third, dependency: the reduction in external aid documented in 2026 abruptly shifts the burden onto already constrained national budgets.
What to watch
- The debt-service-to-revenue ratio, more telling than debt-to-GDP for real fiscal room.
- The share of social spending in approved budgets, and above all in executed budgets.
- The pace and yields of issuance on the regional market, a leading indicator of financing stress.
- The effect of aid cuts on health and education programmes in border regions.
This work extends ongoing research on the links between debt, poverty and peace.
Sources
- IMF — Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa (April 2026)
- IMF — 2026 discussions on common policies of the WAEMU
- BCEAO — Economic conditions in WAEMU countries (July 2026)
- Ecofin Agency — Côte d’Ivoire secures $832.8m IMF disbursement
- Center for Global Development — West Africa at a crossroads: fostering stability after aid cuts