Between November 2026 and February 2027, West Africa holds four elections whose stakes have nothing in common. Reading them together separates democratic routine from genuine rupture risk.
15 November 2026 — Cabo Verde
Presidential election, with a possible run-off on 29 November. Cabo Verde has the lowest score of the eighteen countries tracked by the Circle’s Strategic Vulnerability Index (23.3 in 2024). The stake is not the stability of the vote but its value as a regional benchmark.
5 December 2026 — The Gambia
Presidential election set by the Independent Electoral Commission. The last change of power, in 2016-2017, was only completed after ECOWAS intervened. The vote therefore measures institutional consolidation in a young democracy.
6 December 2026 — Guinea-Bissau
The most sensitive vote. It was set by decree after the coup of 26 November 2025, which occurred the day before the results of the previous election were due; the electoral commission could not complete that process after ballots were seized and servers destroyed. Three questions govern what follows: whether the date holds, the eligibility of leading political figures, and how results are published.
16 January and 6 February 2027 — Nigeria
Presidential and National Assembly elections on 16 January, governorship and state assemblies on 6 February, under INEC’s revised timetable. Nigeria has the highest score in the Strategic Vulnerability Index (81.0 in 2024) and four neighbours affected by armed conflict. The logistical scale of the vote, the security of operations in the North-East and North-West, and the electronic transmission of results are the three identified pressure points.
The Cameroonian unknown
On 19 March 2026 the National Assembly extended its own term to 20 December 2026. Legislative and municipal elections, expected since 2025, have been postponed several times and no polling date was found in the sources consulted as of 5 October 2026. An institutional deadline without a date is itself a risk factor.
The Circle’s Risk calendar tracks these deadlines and their associated signals.
Sources
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies — 2026 Elections, Cabo Verde
- Independent Electoral Commission of The Gambia — Electoral calendar 2026-2027
- Al Jazeera — Guinea-Bissau sets election date following last year’s coup
- Voice of Nigeria — INEC issues revised timetable for the 2027 general election
- Africanews — Cameroon delays parliamentary elections to end 2026